Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 45.47%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $309.67 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 45.47%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Aug 7, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 31, 2026

Target Date

Aug 7, 2026

Price

$309.67

45.47%

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 45.47% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.30%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$19.51.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±6.30% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.30%

Exp. Move $

±$19.51

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$290.17 — $329.17

80% Confidence

$284.68 — $334.66

90% Confidence

$277.60 — $341.75

95% Confidence

$271.45 — $347.89

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.