Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 11.96%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $744.25 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 11.96%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Aug 7, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 31, 2026

Target Date

Aug 7, 2026

Price

$744.25

11.96%

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 11.96% × √(7/365) ≈ 1.66%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.35.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±1.66% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±1.66%

Exp. Move $

±$12.35

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$731.92 — $756.58

80% Confidence

$728.45 — $760.05

90% Confidence

$723.97 — $764.53

95% Confidence

$720.09 — $768.41

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.