Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 32.89%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $461.53 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 32.89%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Aug 7, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 31, 2026

Target Date

Aug 7, 2026

Price

$461.53

32.89%

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 32.89% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.55%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$21.00.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±4.55% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.55%

Exp. Move $

±$21.00

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$440.51 — $482.55

80% Confidence

$434.59 — $488.47

90% Confidence

$426.95 — $496.11

95% Confidence

$420.33 — $502.74

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.