Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 72.92%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $145.75 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 72.92%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Aug 7, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 31, 2026

Target Date

Aug 7, 2026

Price

$145.75

72.92%

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 72.92% × √(7/365) ≈ 10.10%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$14.72.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±10.10% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±10.10%

Exp. Move $

±$14.72

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$131.03 — $160.47

80% Confidence

$126.89 — $164.61

90% Confidence

$121.54 — $169.96

95% Confidence

$116.90 — $174.60

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.