Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 31.71%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $307.10 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 31.71%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Aug 7, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 31, 2026

Target Date

Aug 7, 2026

Price

$307.10

31.71%

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 31.71% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.39%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$13.48.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±4.39% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.39%

Exp. Move $

±$13.48

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$293.61 — $320.59

80% Confidence

$289.82 — $324.38

90% Confidence

$284.92 — $329.28

95% Confidence

$280.67 — $333.53

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.