Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 51.39%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $312.09 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 51.39%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$312.09

IV

51.39%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 51.39% × √(7/365) ≈ 7.12%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$22.22.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±7.12% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±7.12%

Exp. Move $

±$22.22

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$289.88 — $334.29

80% Confidence

$283.62 — $340.55

90% Confidence

$275.56 — $348.62

95% Confidence

$268.56 — $355.61

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 51.39% implies a ±7.12% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $289.88 to $334.29.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.