Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 15.92%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $738.70 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 15.92%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$738.70

IV

15.92%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 15.92% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.20%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.25.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±2.20% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.20%

Exp. Move $

±$16.25

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$722.42 — $754.98

80% Confidence

$717.83 — $759.57

90% Confidence

$711.92 — $765.48

95% Confidence

$706.79 — $770.61

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 15.92% implies a ±2.20% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $722.42 to $754.98.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.