Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 89.36%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $30.09 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 89.36%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$30.09

IV

89.36%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 89.36% × √(7/365) ≈ 12.38%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.73.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±12.38% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±12.38%

Exp. Move $

±$3.73

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$26.37 — $33.82

80% Confidence

$25.32 — $34.87

90% Confidence

$23.97 — $36.22

95% Confidence

$22.80 — $37.39

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 89.36% implies a ±12.38% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $26.37 to $33.82.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.