Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 88.02%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $64.13 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 88.02%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$64.13

IV

88.02%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 88.02% × √(7/365) ≈ 12.19%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$7.82.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±12.19% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±12.19%

Exp. Move $

±$7.82

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$56.31 — $71.95

80% Confidence

$54.11 — $74.15

90% Confidence

$51.27 — $76.99

95% Confidence

$48.81 — $79.45

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 88.02% implies a ±12.19% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $56.31 to $71.95.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.