Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 28.36%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $684.63 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 28.36%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$684.63

IV

28.36%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 28.36% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.93%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$26.91.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±3.93% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.93%

Exp. Move $

±$26.91

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$657.74 — $711.52

80% Confidence

$650.16 — $719.10

90% Confidence

$640.39 — $728.87

95% Confidence

$631.92 — $737.34

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 28.36% implies a ±3.93% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $657.74 to $711.52.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.