Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 67.87%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $114.90 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 67.87%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$114.90

IV

67.87%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 67.87% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.40%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.80.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±9.40% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.40%

Exp. Move $

±$10.80

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$104.10 — $125.70

80% Confidence

$101.06 — $128.74

90% Confidence

$97.13 — $132.67

95% Confidence

$93.73 — $136.07

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 67.87% implies a ±9.40% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $104.10 to $125.70.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.