Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 64.96%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $381.58 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 64.96%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$381.58

IV

64.96%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 64.96% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.00%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$34.34.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±9.00% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.00%

Exp. Move $

±$34.34

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$347.25 — $415.91

80% Confidence

$337.59 — $425.57

90% Confidence

$325.12 — $438.04

95% Confidence

$314.30 — $448.86

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 64.96% implies a ±9.00% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $347.25 to $415.91.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.