Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 97.30%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $158.18 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 97.30%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$158.18

IV

97.30%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 97.30% × √(7/365) ≈ 13.48%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$21.32.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±13.48% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±13.48%

Exp. Move $

±$21.32

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$136.86 — $179.50

80% Confidence

$130.86 — $185.50

90% Confidence

$123.12 — $193.24

95% Confidence

$116.40 — $199.96

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 97.30% implies a ±13.48% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $136.86 to $179.50.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.