Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 38.56%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $333.65 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 38.56%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 31, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 24, 2026

Target Date

Jul 31, 2026

Price

$333.65

IV

38.56%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 38.56% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.34%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$17.82.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±5.34% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.34%

Exp. Move $

±$17.82

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$315.83 — $351.47

80% Confidence

$310.81 — $356.49

90% Confidence

$304.34 — $362.96

95% Confidence

$298.72 — $368.58

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 38.56% implies a ±5.34% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $315.83 to $351.47.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.