Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 43.03%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $407.59 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 43.03%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$407.59

IV

43.03%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 43.03% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.96%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$24.29.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±5.96% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.96%

Exp. Move $

±$24.29

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$383.30 — $431.88

80% Confidence

$376.46 — $438.72

90% Confidence

$367.64 — $447.54

95% Confidence

$359.99 — $455.19

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 43.03% implies a ±5.96% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $383.30 to $431.88.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.