Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 9.80%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $754.90 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 9.80%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$754.90

IV

9.80%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 9.80% × √(7/365) ≈ 1.36%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.27.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±1.36% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±1.36%

Exp. Move $

±$10.27

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$744.65 — $765.15

80% Confidence

$741.76 — $768.04

90% Confidence

$738.04 — $771.76

95% Confidence

$734.81 — $774.99

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 9.80% implies a ±1.36% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $744.65 to $765.15.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.