Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 78.10%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $28.43 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 78.10%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$28.43

IV

78.10%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 78.10% × √(7/365) ≈ 10.82%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.08.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±10.82% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±10.82%

Exp. Move $

±$3.08

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$25.35 — $31.51

80% Confidence

$24.49 — $32.37

90% Confidence

$23.37 — $33.49

95% Confidence

$22.40 — $34.46

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 78.10% implies a ±10.82% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $25.35 to $31.51.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.