Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 80.59%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $81.52 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 80.59%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$81.52

IV

80.59%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 80.59% × √(7/365) ≈ 11.16%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.10.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±11.16% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±11.16%

Exp. Move $

±$9.10

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$72.42 — $90.61

80% Confidence

$69.86 — $93.18

90% Confidence

$66.55 — $96.48

95% Confidence

$63.69 — $99.35

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 80.59% implies a ±11.16% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $72.42 to $90.61.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.