Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 19.27%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $726.29 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 19.27%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$726.29

IV

19.27%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 19.27% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.67%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$19.39.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±2.67% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.67%

Exp. Move $

±$19.39

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$706.90 — $745.68

80% Confidence

$701.44 — $751.14

90% Confidence

$694.40 — $758.18

95% Confidence

$688.29 — $764.29

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 19.27% implies a ±2.67% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $706.90 to $745.68.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.