Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 55.16%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $140.88 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 55.16%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$140.88

IV

55.16%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 55.16% × √(7/365) ≈ 7.64%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.76.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±7.64% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±7.64%

Exp. Move $

±$10.76

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$130.12 — $151.64

80% Confidence

$127.09 — $154.67

90% Confidence

$123.18 — $158.58

95% Confidence

$119.79 — $161.97

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 55.16% implies a ±7.64% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $130.12 to $151.64.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.