Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 36.71%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $210.57 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 36.71%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$210.57

IV

36.71%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 36.71% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.08%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.70.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±5.08% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.08%

Exp. Move $

±$10.70

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$199.87 — $221.27

80% Confidence

$196.85 — $224.29

90% Confidence

$192.96 — $228.18

95% Confidence

$189.59 — $231.55

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 36.71% implies a ±5.08% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $199.87 to $221.27.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.