Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 32.80%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $385.38 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 32.80%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$385.38

IV

32.80%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 32.80% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.54%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$17.50.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±4.54% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.54%

Exp. Move $

±$17.50

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$367.88 — $402.88

80% Confidence

$362.95 — $407.81

90% Confidence

$356.59 — $414.17

95% Confidence

$351.07 — $419.69

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 32.80% implies a ±4.54% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $367.88 to $402.88.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.