Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 50.10%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $668.00 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 50.10%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$668.00

IV

50.10%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 50.10% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.94%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$46.36.

The market expects META to stay within ±6.94% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.94%

Exp. Move $

±$46.36

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$621.66 — $714.34

80% Confidence

$608.61 — $727.39

90% Confidence

$591.77 — $744.23

95% Confidence

$577.17 — $758.83

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 50.10% implies a ±6.94% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $621.66 to $714.34.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.