Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 67.25%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $159.80 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 67.25%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$159.80

IV

67.25%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 67.25% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.31%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$14.88.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±9.31% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.31%

Exp. Move $

±$14.88

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$144.92 — $174.68

80% Confidence

$140.73 — $178.87

90% Confidence

$135.32 — $184.28

95% Confidence

$130.63 — $188.97

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 67.25% implies a ±9.31% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $144.92 to $174.68.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.