Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: BA

BA implied volatility is at 30.06%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

BA is trading at $222.20 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 30.06%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$222.20

IV

30.06%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 30.06% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.16%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.24.

The market expects BA to stay within ±4.16% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.16%

Exp. Move $

±$9.24

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$212.95 — $231.45

80% Confidence

$210.34 — $234.06

90% Confidence

$206.98 — $237.42

95% Confidence

$204.07 — $240.33

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 30.06% implies a ±4.16% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $212.95 to $231.45.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.