Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 22.90%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $314.96 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 22.90%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Jul 17, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 10, 2026

Target Date

Jul 17, 2026

Price

$314.96

IV

22.90%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 22.90% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.17%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.98.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±3.17% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.17%

Exp. Move $

±$9.98

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$304.97 — $324.95

80% Confidence

$302.16 — $327.76

90% Confidence

$298.53 — $331.39

95% Confidence

$295.38 — $334.54

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 22.90% implies a ±3.17% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $304.97 to $324.95.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.