Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 50.62%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $394.40 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 50.62%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$394.40

IV

50.62%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 50.62% × √(6/365) ≈ 6.49%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$25.60.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±6.49% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±6.49%

Exp. Move $

±$25.60

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$368.80 — $420.00

80% Confidence

$361.60 — $427.20

90% Confidence

$352.30 — $436.50

95% Confidence

$344.23 — $444.57

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 50.62% implies a ±6.49% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $368.80 to $420.00.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.