Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 12.33%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $745.71 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 12.33%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$745.71

IV

12.33%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 12.33% × √(6/365) ≈ 1.58%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.78.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±1.58% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±1.58%

Exp. Move $

±$11.78

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$733.92 — $757.50

80% Confidence

$730.60 — $760.82

90% Confidence

$726.32 — $765.10

95% Confidence

$722.60 — $768.82

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 12.33% implies a ±1.58% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $733.92 to $757.50.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.