Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 26.49%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $714.22 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 26.49%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$714.22

IV

26.49%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 26.49% × √(6/365) ≈ 3.40%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$24.28.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±3.40% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±3.40%

Exp. Move $

±$24.28

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$689.97 — $738.47

80% Confidence

$683.14 — $745.30

90% Confidence

$674.32 — $754.12

95% Confidence

$666.68 — $761.76

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 26.49% implies a ±3.40% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $689.97 to $738.47.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.