Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 64.27%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $141.01 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 64.27%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$141.01

IV

64.27%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 64.27% × √(6/365) ≈ 8.24%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.62.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±8.24% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±8.24%

Exp. Move $

±$11.62

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$129.39 — $152.63

80% Confidence

$126.12 — $155.90

90% Confidence

$121.90 — $160.12

95% Confidence

$118.24 — $163.78

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 64.27% implies a ±8.24% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $129.39 to $152.63.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.