Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 41.52%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $194.44 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 41.52%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$194.44

IV

41.52%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 41.52% × √(6/365) ≈ 5.32%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.34.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±5.32% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±5.32%

Exp. Move $

±$10.34

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$184.09 — $204.79

80% Confidence

$181.17 — $207.71

90% Confidence

$177.41 — $211.47

95% Confidence

$174.15 — $214.73

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 41.52% implies a ±5.32% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $184.09 to $204.79.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.