Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MU

MU implied volatility is at 124.50%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MU is trading at $976.63 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 124.50%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$976.63

IV

124.50%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 124.50% × √(6/365) ≈ 15.96%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$155.87.

The market expects MU to stay within ±15.96% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±15.96%

Exp. Move $

±$155.87

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$820.74 — $1132.52

80% Confidence

$776.84 — $1176.42

90% Confidence

$720.20 — $1233.06

95% Confidence

$671.08 — $1282.18

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 124.50% implies a ±15.96% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $820.74 to $1132.52.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.