Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 39.14%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $390.83 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 39.14%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$390.83

IV

39.14%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 39.14% × √(6/365) ≈ 5.02%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$19.62.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±5.02% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±5.02%

Exp. Move $

±$19.62

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$371.22 — $410.44

80% Confidence

$365.70 — $415.96

90% Confidence

$358.57 — $423.09

95% Confidence

$352.39 — $429.27

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 39.14% implies a ±5.02% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $371.22 to $410.44.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.