Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 41.49%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $584.88 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 41.49%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$584.88

IV

41.49%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 41.49% × √(6/365) ≈ 5.32%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$31.12.

The market expects META to stay within ±5.32% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±5.32%

Exp. Move $

±$31.12

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$553.77 — $616.00

80% Confidence

$545.01 — $624.76

90% Confidence

$533.70 — $636.06

95% Confidence

$523.90 — $645.87

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 41.49% implies a ±5.32% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $553.77 to $616.00.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.