Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: FCX

FCX implied volatility is at 60.30%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

FCX is trading at $60.68 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 60.30%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$60.68

IV

60.30%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 60.30% × √(6/365) ≈ 7.73%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$4.69.

The market expects FCX to stay within ±7.73% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±7.73%

Exp. Move $

±$4.69

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$55.99 — $65.37

80% Confidence

$54.67 — $66.69

90% Confidence

$52.96 — $68.40

95% Confidence

$51.48 — $69.88

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 60.30% implies a ±7.73% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $55.99 to $65.37.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.