Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 82.00%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $165.70 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 82.00%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$165.70

IV

82.00%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 82.00% × √(6/365) ≈ 10.51%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$17.42.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±10.51% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±10.51%

Exp. Move $

±$17.42

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$148.28 — $183.12

80% Confidence

$143.37 — $188.03

90% Confidence

$137.04 — $194.36

95% Confidence

$131.55 — $199.85

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 82.00% implies a ±10.51% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $148.28 to $183.12.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.