Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMD

AMD implied volatility is at 79.92%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMD is trading at $519.50 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 79.92%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$519.50

IV

79.92%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 79.92% × √(6/365) ≈ 10.25%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$53.25.

The market expects AMD to stay within ±10.25% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±10.25%

Exp. Move $

±$53.25

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$466.27 — $572.73

80% Confidence

$451.28 — $587.72

90% Confidence

$431.94 — $607.06

95% Confidence

$415.16 — $623.84

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 79.92% implies a ±10.25% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $466.27 to $572.73.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.