Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 29.18%. We break down the 6-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $308.45 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 29.18%.

With 6 days to expiration (Target: Jul 10, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Jul 4, 2026

Target Date

Jul 10, 2026

Price

$308.45

IV

29.18%

Volatility Math (6 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 6-day timeframe.

Formula: 29.18% × √(6/365) ≈ 3.74%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$11.54.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±3.74% about 68% of the time over the next 6 days.

Time Factor

0.1282

Exp. Move %

±3.74%

Exp. Move $

±$11.54

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$296.91 — $319.99

80% Confidence

$293.66 — $323.24

90% Confidence

$289.47 — $327.43

95% Confidence

$285.83 — $331.07

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 29.18% implies a ±3.74% move in 6 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $296.91 to $319.99.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.