Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 17.70%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $681.75 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 17.70%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$681.75

IV

17.70%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 17.70% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.45%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$16.70.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±2.45% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.45%

Exp. Move $

±$16.70

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$665.04 — $698.46

80% Confidence

$660.33 — $703.17

90% Confidence

$654.26 — $709.24

95% Confidence

$649.00 — $714.50

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 17.70% implies a ±2.45% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $665.04 to $698.46.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.