Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NVDA

NVDA implied volatility is at 41.84%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NVDA is trading at $182.81 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 41.84%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$182.81

IV

41.84%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 41.84% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.79%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.58.

The market expects NVDA to stay within ±5.79% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.79%

Exp. Move $

±$10.58

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$172.22 — $193.40

80% Confidence

$169.23 — $196.39

90% Confidence

$165.39 — $200.23

95% Confidence

$162.05 — $203.57

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 41.84% implies a ±5.79% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $172.22 to $193.40.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.