Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: MSFT

MSFT implied volatility is at 28.23%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

MSFT is trading at $401.32 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 28.23%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$401.32

IV

28.23%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 28.23% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.91%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$15.69.

The market expects MSFT to stay within ±3.91% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.91%

Exp. Move $

±$15.69

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$385.63 — $417.01

80% Confidence

$381.21 — $421.43

90% Confidence

$375.52 — $427.12

95% Confidence

$370.57 — $432.07

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 28.23% implies a ±3.91% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $385.63 to $417.01.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.