Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: META

META implied volatility is at 32.71%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

META is trading at $639.77 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 32.71%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$639.77

IV

32.71%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 32.71% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.53%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$28.98.

The market expects META to stay within ±4.53% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.53%

Exp. Move $

±$28.98

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$610.79 — $668.75

80% Confidence

$602.62 — $676.92

90% Confidence

$592.10 — $687.44

95% Confidence

$582.97 — $696.57

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 32.71% implies a ±4.53% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $610.79 to $668.75.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.