Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: COIN

COIN implied volatility is at 67.06%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

COIN is trading at $164.32 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 67.06%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$164.32

IV

67.06%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 67.06% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.29%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$15.27.

The market expects COIN to stay within ±9.29% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.29%

Exp. Move $

±$15.27

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$149.06 — $179.58

80% Confidence

$144.76 — $183.88

90% Confidence

$139.22 — $189.42

95% Confidence

$134.41 — $194.23

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 67.06% implies a ±9.29% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $149.06 to $179.58.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.