Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMZN

AMZN implied volatility is at 31.67%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMZN is trading at $198.79 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 31.67%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$198.79

IV

31.67%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 31.67% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.39%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$8.73.

The market expects AMZN to stay within ±4.39% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.39%

Exp. Move $

±$8.73

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$190.07 — $207.51

80% Confidence

$187.61 — $209.97

90% Confidence

$184.45 — $213.13

95% Confidence

$181.70 — $215.88

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 31.67% implies a ±4.39% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $190.07 to $207.51.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.