Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AMD

AMD implied volatility is at 53.14%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AMD is trading at $207.32 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 53.14%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$207.32

IV

53.14%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 53.14% × √(7/365) ≈ 7.36%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$15.26.

The market expects AMD to stay within ±7.36% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±7.36%

Exp. Move $

±$15.26

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$192.06 — $222.58

80% Confidence

$187.76 — $226.88

90% Confidence

$182.22 — $232.42

95% Confidence

$177.42 — $237.22

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 53.14% implies a ±7.36% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $192.06 to $222.58.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.