Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: AAPL

AAPL implied volatility is at 29.15%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

AAPL is trading at $255.78 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 29.15%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$255.78

IV

29.15%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 29.15% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.04%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.33.

The market expects AAPL to stay within ±4.04% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.04%

Exp. Move $

±$10.33

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$245.46 — $266.10

80% Confidence

$242.54 — $269.02

90% Confidence

$238.80 — $272.76

95% Confidence

$235.55 — $276.01

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 29.15% implies a ±4.04% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $245.46 to $266.10.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.