Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 42.40%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $411.11 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 42.40%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$411.11

IV

42.40%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 42.40% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.87%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$24.13.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±5.87% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.87%

Exp. Move $

±$24.13

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$386.97 — $435.25

80% Confidence

$380.16 — $442.06

90% Confidence

$371.40 — $450.82

95% Confidence

$363.80 — $458.42

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 42.40% implies a ±5.87% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $386.97 to $435.25.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.