Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SPY

SPY implied volatility is at 15.91%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SPY is trading at $690.62 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 15.91%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$690.62

IV

15.91%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 15.91% × √(7/365) ≈ 2.20%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$15.19.

The market expects SPY to stay within ±2.20% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±2.20%

Exp. Move $

±$15.19

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$675.40 — $705.84

80% Confidence

$671.11 — $710.13

90% Confidence

$665.59 — $715.65

95% Confidence

$660.80 — $720.44

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 15.91% implies a ±2.20% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $675.40 to $705.84.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.