Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 70.13%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $34.38 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 70.13%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$34.38

IV

70.13%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 70.13% × √(7/365) ≈ 9.71%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.34.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±9.71% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±9.71%

Exp. Move $

±$3.34

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$31.04 — $37.72

80% Confidence

$30.10 — $38.66

90% Confidence

$28.89 — $39.87

95% Confidence

$27.84 — $40.92

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 70.13% implies a ±9.71% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $31.04 to $37.72.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.