Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 95.91%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $72.32 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 95.91%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 13, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 06, 2026

Target Date

Feb 13, 2026

Price

$72.32

IV

95.91%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 95.91% × √(7/365) ≈ 13.28%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$9.60.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±13.28% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±13.28%

Exp. Move $

±$9.60

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$62.71 — $81.93

80% Confidence

$60.01 — $84.63

90% Confidence

$56.52 — $88.12

95% Confidence

$53.49 — $91.15

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 95.91% implies a ±13.28% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $62.71 to $81.93.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.